Anthropogenic CO₂ emission impact on optical properties of the atmosphere triggers probability of the runaway greenhouse effect

A V Karnaukhov¹, A V Aliakin², M E Prokhorov³, S I Blinnikov⁴, E P Popova⁵ and S F Lyuksyutov^6
1Institute of Cell Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences Pushchino 142290, Russia
²Lomonosov Moscow State University, Physics Department, 119991 Moscow, Russia
³Lomonosov Moscow State University, Sternberg Astronomical Institute, 119991 Moscow, Russia
⁴Kurchatov Complex for Theoretical and Experimental Physics, 117218 Moscow, Russia
⁵University of Maryland, Department of Physics, College Park MD 20742-4111, United States of America
⁶The University of Akron, Physics Department, Akron OH 44325, United States of America
Dedicated to Professor Nikolai Kukhtarev

Global warming of the Earth’s atmosphere could transit into a runaway greenhouse effect. We assess the increase of the global temperature using regression analysis of instrumental data and key climate parameters given in the 6th IPCC Assessment Report. It is suggested that even if the tasks of sharply reducing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are fully achieved, the emissions from natural CO₂ sources can still lead to significant increase in the Earth’s global temperature. © Anita Publications. All rights reserved.
Doi: 10.54955/AJP.33.7-8.2024.529-540
Keywords: Climate change, Greenhouse catastrophe, Positive feedback, Regression analysis.

Peer Review Information
Method: Single- anonymous; Screened for Plagiarism? Yes
Buy this Article in Print © Anita Publications. All rights reserve

References

1. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement.
2. Karnaukhov A V, Role of the biosphere in the formation of the Earth’s climate: the greenhouse catastrophe, Biophysics, 46(2001)1078–1088.
3. Wolf E T, Toon O B, Delayed onset of runaway and moist greenhouse climates for Earth, Geophys Res Lett, 41(2014)167–172.
4. Goldblatt C, Watson A J, The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres, Phil Trans Royal Soc A, 370(2012)4197–4216.
5. Kasting J F, Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus, Icarus, 74(1988)472–494.
6. Kunzig R, Will Earth’s Ocean Boil Away? (National Geographic Daily News), 2013.
7. Donahue T M, Planetary Sciences: American and Soviet Research, (National Academies Press, Washington), 1991.
8. Ingersoll A P, The runaway greenhouse: a history of water on Venus, J Atmos Sci, 26(1969)1191–1198.
9. Komabayasi M, Discrete Equilibrium Temperatures of a Hypothetical Planet with the Atmosphere and the Hydrosphere of One Component-Two Phase System under Constant Solar Radiation, J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 45(1967)137–139.
10. Simpson G C, On some studies in terrestrial radiation, Q J R Meteorol Soc, 2(1928)73–73.
11. Nakajima S, Hayashi Y, Abe Y, A study on the “Runaway Greenhouse Effect” with a one-dimensional radiative–convective equilibrium model, J Atmos Sci, 49(1992 )2256–2266.
12. Kasting J F, Ackerman T P, Climatic consequences of very high carbon dioxide levels in the Earth’s early atmosphere, Science, 234(1986)1383–1385.
13. Gough D O, Solar interior structure and luminosity variations, Sol Phys, 74(1981)21–34.
14. Catling D C, Kasting J F, Atmospheric evolution on inhabited and lifeless worlds, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge), 2017; doi.org/10.1017/9781139020558.
15. Kennett J P, Cannariato K G, Hendy I L, Behl R J, Methane hydrates in quaternary climate change: the clathrate gun hypothesis, (American Geophysical Union, Washington), 2003; doi.org/10.1029/054SP.
16. Kennett J P, Cannariato K G, Hendy I L, Behl R J, Carbon isotopic evidence for methane hydrate instability during quaternary interstadials, Science, 288(2000)128–33.
17. Hansen J, Sato M, Russell G, Kharecha P, Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Phil Trans Royal Soc A, 371(2013)20120294; doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0294.
18. Joung D, Ruppel C, Southon J, Weber T S, Kessler J D, Negligible atmospheric release of methane from decomposing hydrates in mid-latitude oceans, Nat Geosci, 15(2022)885–891.
19. IPCC 2021 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (Ed) Masson-Delmotte V et al, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge), 2021; doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.
20. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html.
21. Friedlingstein P, Michael O’Sullivan, Jones M W, Andrew R M, Gregor L, Hauck J, Quéré C L, Luijkx I T, Olsen A, Peters G P, Peters W, Pongratz J, Schwingshackl C, Sitch S, Canadell J G, Ciais P, Jackson R B, Alin S R, Alkama R, Arneth A, Arora V K, Bates N R, Becker M, Bellouin N, Bittig H C, Bopp L, Chevallier F, Chini L P, Cronin M, Evans W, Falk S, Feely R A, Gasser T, Gehlen M, Gkritzalis T, Gloege L, Grassi G, Gruber N, Gürses Ö, Harris I, Hefner M, Houghton R A, Hurtt G C, Iida Y, Ilyina T, Jain A K, Jersild A, Kadono K, Etsushi xE, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O’Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Wright R, Yuan W, Yue C, Yue X, Zaehle S, Zeng J, Zheng B, Global Carbon Budget 2022, Earth Syst Sci Data, 14(2022)4811–4900.
22. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.
23. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Nazarenko L, Lacis A, Schmidt G A, Russell G, Aleinov I I, Bauer M, Bauer S, Bell N, Cairns B, Canuto V, Chandler M, Cheng Y, Genio A D, Faluvegi G, Fleming E, Friend A, Hall T, Jackman C, Kelley M, Kiang N, Koch D, Lean J, Lerner J, Lo K, Menon S, Miller R, Minnis P, Novakov T, Oinas V, Perlwitz J, Perlwitz J, Rind D, Romanou A, Shindell D, Stone P, Sun S, Tausnev N, Thresher D, Wielicki W, Wong T, Yao M, Zhang S, Efficacy of climate forcings, J Geophys Res, 110(2005); doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005776.
24. Smith C J, Kramer R J, Myhre G, Alterskjær K, Collins W, Sima A, Boucher O, Dufresne J-L, Nabat P, Michou M, Yukimoto S, Cole J, Paynter D, Shiogama H, O’Connor F M, Robertson E, Wiltshire A, Andrews T, Hannay C, Miller R, Nazarenko L, Kirkevåg A, Olivié D, Fiedler S, Lewinschal A, Mackallah C, Dix M, Pincus R, Piers M, Forster, Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmos Chem Phys, 20(2020)9591–9618.
25. Zelinka M D, Myers T A, McCoy D T, Po-Chedley S, Caldwell P M, Ceppi P, Klein S A, Taylor K E, Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, Geophys Res Lett, 47(2020); doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782.
26. Murphy D M, Forster P M, On the accuracy of deriving climate feedback parameters from correlations between surface temperature and outgoing radiation, J Clim, 23(2010)4983–4988.
27. Meinshausen M, Nicholls Z R B, Lewis J, Gidden M J, Vogel E, Freund M, Beyerle U, Gessner C, Nauels A, Bauer N, Canadell J G, Daniel J S, John A, Krummel P B, Luderer G, Meinshausen N, Montzka S A, Rayner P J, Reimann S, Smith S J, van den Berg M, Velders G J M, Vollmer M K, Wang R H J, The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci Model Dev, 13(2020)3571–3605.
28. Karnaukhov A V, Karnaukhova E V, Popova E P, Blinnikov M S, Serstirbatov K A, Blinnikov S I, Reshetov V N, Lyuksyutov S F, Non-steady state model of global temperature change: Can we keep temperature from rising more than on two degrees?, arXiv:2107.13100v1 (2021).